How new decades affect gold, stocks and (maybe) bitcoin

Even if you’ve been investing/trading for 9 years, you haven’t experienced the markets reaction to a new decade yet and its effects might actually be a big deal. On this website, we focus on cryptocurrencies for the most part, but since Bitcoin doesn’t have a history of reacting to a new decade, we’ll look into its stock and gold counterparts to get a feel on whether it changes anything in the long run.

There are two ways to approach this. First, we look at what happens at the turn of a decade, then we see if trends last the entire ten years.

Gold vs stock market by decade
Gold (top) vs S&P 500 (bottom)

According to the charts, the US stock market and gold tend to hold trends for a decade. Most reversals in trends are either made at the end of a decade or very close to it. Take for instance the S&P 500 in 2000. Almost immediately after the turn of the decade, the twenty year pump ended and a stagnant market began. It wasn’t until 2009 when that stagnant market reached an all time low which was followed by another ten years of consistent growth.

Gold flipped from a ranging / stagnant market at almost exactly the same time as the S&P 500 in the year 2000. Gold was ranging while the S&P 500 pumped for a twenty year period, then while the stocks ranged, gold grew. The most obvious exception to this tendency is between 2009 and 2012, where both stocks and gold were growing at similar rates. After 2012, gold fell in price and ranged for the rest of the decade.

Gold and the US stock market tend to perform inversely to one another. Some say that this is because gold is a safe haven away from the stock market crashing, but while the idea is logical, it is not always consistent. Between 2008 and 2009, both stocks and gold had poor performance, so simply jumping from one asset to another is not guaranteed to save you. On a more macro scale, it is obvious that gold pumps when the stock market doesn’t.

Given that Bitcoin is often compared to gold, it will be interesting to see how it performs at the end of its first decade and in contrast to other asset classes. From 2010-2019, Bitcoin performed more similarly to the stock market than gold, but it was also in its own lane being a new technology. If you wanted to compare Bitcoin to anything this decade, it would probably be the NASDAQ index, as it preformed better than the S&P 500 in general, but Bitcoin saw higher returns than both.

bitcoin vs S&P 500
Bitcoin (top) vs S&P 500 (bottom)

Subjectively, Bitcoin looks like it’s flattening out now more than ever. Could the upwards trend flip during the 20s? The 2019 yearly candle doesn’t look like it will have an amazing close and support is strongest around the $1k area. In the end, it will probably depend on how people are using crypto and the global perception of blockchain tech.